Wednesday, November 17, 2004
Looking ahead
The partisans over at National Review -- still licking the blood of several Democrat senate candidates off their lips -- have begun handicapping the 2006 senate races, and at first glance it doesn't look good for our beleaguered blue state brethren. According to Red State's analysis of the 10 potential battleground states (assuming no retirements or gay sex scandals), 7 are held by Dems. By Red State's count, the GOP is good for another 1 or 2 seats to add to the mix (especially if Rossi loses the count/recount for governor of Washington and decides to run against Cantwell).
I think this assessment is a bit optimistic. Incumbents are damn near impossible to knock off (or at least tougher than they always seem in these long-range predictions), and the likeliest open seat is in Republican hands (Tennessee, if Frist decides to run for president). I also would note that, while George Allen is a good candidate and should hold Virginia, Mark Warner is no slouch and has deep pockets. I call it a draw as of today, but time has a way of making a fool out of the wisest prognosticator.
I think this assessment is a bit optimistic. Incumbents are damn near impossible to knock off (or at least tougher than they always seem in these long-range predictions), and the likeliest open seat is in Republican hands (Tennessee, if Frist decides to run for president). I also would note that, while George Allen is a good candidate and should hold Virginia, Mark Warner is no slouch and has deep pockets. I call it a draw as of today, but time has a way of making a fool out of the wisest prognosticator.
Centinel 3:56 PM #